Global Times｜Top meeting sets China's economic course in H2, lays foundation for long-term plan ahead of October plenary
The fourth plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee will be held in Beijing in October, according to a decision made at a CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting on Wednesday, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
According to the main agenda of the session, the Political Bureau will report its work to the CPC Central Committee, and the session will study the proposals for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for national economic and social development.
Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, chaired Wednesday's meeting.
The meeting also analyzed and studied the current economic situation and made arrangements for economic work in the second half of this year.
It was noted at the meeting that the 15th Five-Year Plan will be a crucial phase for consolidating the foundation and making all-round efforts to basically realize socialist modernization.
Against the backdrop of global complexities, Wednesday's meeting highlights China's determination to chart the right course for the economy, not only in short term but also in the long term, which will inject more stability into an uncertain world, Chinese analysts said.
The meeting also underscores China's determination to steer its economy with concrete short- and long-term plans, and highlights its distinctive institutional strengths and effective governance mechanisms such as long-term plans, which helps boost confidence in the country's high-quality development, Chinese analysts said, noting China's commitment to further opening-up despite the difficulties is also sending a positive signal to global investors.
Steady trajectory
Wednesday's meeting has set the tone for China's economic trajectory in the second half of the year, outlining key priorities and policy directions to ensure continued growth and stability amid a complex external environment.
The meeting emphasized the need to do a solid job in managing economic work for the second half of the year. It called for upholding the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the establishment of a new development paradigm, maintaining policy consistency and stability, and enhancing flexibility and foresight, according to Xinhua.
The meeting stated that efforts should be focused on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets and expectations. It called for effectively promoting the dual circulation of domestic and international markets, striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, and ensuring a successful conclusion to the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25).
Specifically, the meeting stressed that macro policies must continue to exert force and be strengthened at appropriate times. It called for the thorough implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy to fully unleash their effects. The issuance and utilization of government bonds should be accelerated, with efforts made to improve the efficiency of fund use.
The meeting emphasized the need to effectively unlock domestic demand potential.
The meeting also emphasized the need to expand high-standard opening-up and stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade and investment. It called for supporting foreign trade enterprises that have been hit hard, strengthening financial support, and promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade. The export tax rebate policy should be optimized, and high-standard development of pilot free trade zones and other opening-up platforms should be advanced.
This meeting not only clarified the economic priorities for the second half of the year, but also laid the foundation for the fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October that will chart China's development path for the next five years, Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Wednesday, noting China's institutional strengths and effective economic governance system which ensure the dual approach of managing immediate economic tasks while maintaining a clear, long-term strategic vision.
"At a time of growing global uncertainty, with rising unilateralism, protectionism and geopolitical tensions, China's commitment to long term planning and consistent and stable policymaking stands out as a clear institutional strength and, in many ways this is a source of stability for the global economy," Cao said.
This form of planning is a distinct feature of China's governance system, Li Changan, a professor at the Academy of China Open Economy Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Wednesday, noting that it not only sets clear development goals and strategic pathways for the future, but also serves to align efforts across all levels of government.
"Through performance evaluations, accountability mechanisms and targeted policy support, it helps ensure coordinated and effective implementation of national priorities," Li said.
Wednesday's meeting also highlighted the challenges ahead.
China's development is facing profound and complex changes, as strategic opportunities, risks and challenges are concurrent and uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising, Xinhua reported.
Meanwhile, the country's economy is underpinned by a stable foundation, multiple advantages, strong resilience and great potential, and the supporting conditions and fundamental trends for long-term sound economic development have not changed, the report said. It noted that the strengths of socialism with Chinese characteristics as well as the country's enormous market, complete industrial system and abundant talent resources are becoming more pronounced, according to the meeting.
Global significance
"The significance of the meeting is self-evident in the global context. It further underscores China's consistent commitment to opening up and its confidence and determination to pursue high-standard opening-up," Li said.
By setting clear development goals, China not only provides a clear roadmap for its own progress but also sends a signal of stability and confidence to the world which is especially valuable when protectionism is on the rise, Li said.
The resilience of China's economy is also widely recognized in the global market. In a further sign of confidence, major international financial institutions have recently raised their full-year growth forecasts for China, reinforcing expectations for the country's continued economic development.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its forecast for China in 2025 to 4.8 percent, up 0.8 percentage points compared to its forecast in April, according to an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
"This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in US-China tariffs. The GDP outturn in the first quarter of 2025 alone implies a mechanical upgrade to the growth rate for the year of 0.6 percentage point. A recovery in inventory accumulation is expected to partly offset payback from front-loading in the second half of 2025," the WEO said.
China's real GDP growth, at an annualized rate of 6 percent, has exceeded expectations. This was mainly driven by exports, propped up by a depreciating yuan closely tracking the dollar and with declining sales to the US more than offset by strong sales to the rest of the world, and, to a smaller extent, by consumption, supported by fiscal measures, the WEO noted.
Previously, several major international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, also raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2025. These upward revisions have not only drawn significant attention from global capital markets but also reflect growing confidence among foreign investors in the resilience of China's economy, experts said.
Li said that economic performance in the first half was solid overall, putting the country on track to meet its full-year growth target. Barring any major surprises, achieving that goal should be well within reach, the expert said.
China's GDP grew 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, official data showed.